If you are a fan of Arsenal or Tottenham, you may be getting pretty excited about your team’s start to the Premier League season. Both north London teams are unbeaten after eight games and have dismantled some title rivals along the way. But the Premier League is a marathon not a sprint, so is this flying start sustainable?
We look at the last five Premier League tables at this stage of the season and what we can learn from them…
2022/2023
| Team | Played | Goal Difference | Points |
| Arsenal | 8 | 12 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 8 | 20 | 20 |
| Tottenham | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| Brighton | 7 | 6 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 7 | 0 | 13 |
Arsenal led the way with Manchester City just behind, whilst Tottenham were going well under Antonio Conte. Graham Potter was flying high with Brighton, and Chelsea had made a respectable start before things took a turn for the worse. Arsenal were a point better off at this stage last season, and Manchester City were two points better off at this stage than they are at the moment. Spurs are still unbeaten and are three points higher than they were in 2022.
After 38 games, Manchester City were crowned champions with 89 points, five above Arsenal who finished in second. Spurs dropped to eighth finishing with 60 points. Despite the departure of Graham Potter, Brighton finished in sixth and qualified for the Europa League. Chelsea had a huge drop off and finished in a lowly 12th position. Manchester United, Newcastle and Liverpool all ended up finishing in the top five.
2021/2022
| Team | Played | Goal Difference | Points |
| Chelsea | 8 | 13 | 19 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 16 | 18 |
| Manchester City | 8 | 13 | 17 |
| Brighton | 8 | 3 | 15 |
| Tottenham | 8 | -3 | 15 |
A pattern we are seeing early on is that having between 18-21 points after eight games stands you in good stead to qualify to the Champions League. In 2021/2022, Chelsea led the way, but 30 games later they ended up finishing in third. Liverpool and Manchester City battled it out until the final day, but Pep Guardiola’s side won the league by a single point.
Once again, Brighton started strongly but finished ninth in 2022. Four of the top five teams after eight games finished in the Champions League places, with Arsenal finishing fifth, two points behind rivals Tottenham.
2020/2021
| Team | Played | Goal Difference | Points |
| Leicester | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| Tottenham | 8 | 10 | 17 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 2 | 17 |
| Southampton | 8 | 4 | 16 |
| Chelsea | 8 | 10 | 15 |
This makes for intriguing reading. For context, this was the lockdown season where fans were not allowed to watch games inside the stadium. It did make for a different sort of season. Three of these top five teams finished the season in the top five, with Leicester finishing in fifth. Chelsea finished in the Champions League places in fourth, and Liverpool finished in third. Neither Manchester City, who won the league, or their rivals Manchester United appear in the top five after eight games. But both finished in the top two positions.
Tottenham dropped off and finished in seventh place, meanwhile Southampton went from fourth all the way down to a 15th place finish. In the last three seasons, 18 points is the lowest tally from the team at the top.
2019/2020
| Team | Played | Goal Difference | Points |
| Liverpool | 8 | 14 | 24 |
| Manchester City | 8 | 18 | 16 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 2 | 15 |
| Leicester | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 14 |
Liverpool had maximum points after eight games, the highest tally in the previous five seasons. They went on to walk the league by 18 points and finished on 99 points. The season was disrupted in March by the outbreak of COVID-19, but the top five teams after eight games largely stayed the same except for one team.
Swap Arsenal for Manchester United and swap Chelsea and Leicester’s places and that is how things ended up after 38 games. Arsenal’s drop off was huge and they finished eighth, but they won the FA Cup to qualify for Europe. Liverpool were ruthless and won their first ever Premier League trophy.
2018/2019
| Teams | Played | Goal Difference | Points |
| Manchester City | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 8 | 13 | 20 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| Tottenham | 8 | 8 | 18 |
Out of the last five seasons, this is the only occasion where all five of the teams that occupied the top five places after eight games all finished in the top five. Three teams were locked on 20 points with the two north London clubs only two points behind. It was a tight start.
In the end, it was an incredible two-horse race between Manchester City and Liverpool for the title which Manchester City edged by just one point again. 98 points to 97 in favour of the blue half of Manchester. Chelsea finished in third, 25 points behind Liverpool in second, whilst Tottenham pipped Arsenal to Champions League qualification by one point.
What can we learn?
In conclusion, 20 points after eight games is usually enough to keep a team on course for qualification to the Champions League. 20 points is also a good sign that a team may be in a title race. There is also evidence to suggest that just because a team is in the top five after eight games, does not mean they will stay there by the end of the season.
Lots of factors and variables come into play across a nine-month long season, but the early signs show that Arsenal and Spurs are in a very good place, but Manchester City usually lurk like sharks and finish very strong. Liverpool sit three points off the top and have had a positive start to their campaign. Aston Villa sit in fifth, can they maintain their great start too?
