No Premier League team faces a tougher job than the promoted sides, and it is a job that is seemingly getting more and more difficult.
As the difference in quality between the top flight and the Championship grows increasingly stark, it becomes increasingly difficult for a promoted team to gain a foothold in the Premier League.
The success stories of Brighton and Brentford, promoted in 2017 and 2021 respectively before becoming Premier League regulars, now feel a world away. With the eye-watering sums of money needed to compete in the top division continuing to grow and edge out the minnows, England’s football landscape has never been quite so inhospitable to an underdog.
This season, Leicester City, Southampton, and Ipswich Town have reintroduced themselves to England’s top division. Last season, all three promoted sides, Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United, were immediately relegated back to the Championship for the first time since 1998.
For this year’s contenders to buck the trend will be no mean feat. Ipswich and Southampton are already embroiled in a relegation battle, with Leicester not particularly far ahead in 15th place.
With a quarter of the season played, can any of them avoid the drop? Head to Bovada live betting odds to see who are the favourites for relegation.
Leicester City (15th, 9pts, -4GD, 2W 3D 4L)
After topping the Championship table last season, Leicester had the rug pulled out from under them as manager Enzo Maresca left for Chelsea.
His replacement, Steve Cooper, was thrown into the midst of a hectic transfer window, where he lost regular starters in Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, also to Chelsea, and Kelechi Iheanacho. He added £72m worth of talent to his squad, though, including Oliver Skipp, Harry Winks, and highly rated winger Issahaku Fatawu following his loan spell last season.
It has not been easy but there is promise for Leicester, having secured wins over Southampton, Bournemouth and draws with Everton, Crystal Palace and Tottenham.
While they sit 15th in the table, the Foxes rank ninth for goals scored (13) but have also significantly outperformed their expected goals (8.9). They have also taken the joint fewest number of shots per game in the league along with fellow promoted side Ipswich and while they have been clinical with their chances, averaging the most goals per shot on target in the league, whether this is sustainable is questionable.
They have posed a threat on the counter-attack with their pace up top and Jamie Vardy is still proving a reliable source of goals 37, but need to create more chances if they are to stand a strong chance of staying up.
Defensively, they have conceded 17 goals, the fifth most in the league, and have goalkeeper Mads Hermansen to thank for that not being higher given his fine form in between the sticks. Having a good goalkeeper can make all the difference in a relegation fight.
Ipswich Town (18th, 4pts, -11GD, 0W 4D 5L)
The Tractor Boys were arguably faced with the biggest mountain to climb as they embarked on a first Premier League campaign since 2002, having been in League One just two seasons ago. Led by highly rated manager Kieran McKenna, they have been competitive with four draws to their name but are still waiting for a first win.
This summer, Ipswich added Chelsea starlet Omari Hutchinson, Manchester City’s Liam Delap, and Blackburn Rovers’ Sammie Szmodics among others, spending just over £100m in the process as they signalled their intent to maintain their Premier League status.
Admittedly, for that level of investment, you might expect better results, but there is marked progress under McKenna. Looking at their most recent match, a 4-3 loss away to Brentford, Ipswich’s strengths were on full display. They were progressive, creative, and clinical, creating chances with incisive through balls and no-nonsense finishing, also forcing mistakes from their hosts with a high press.
The downfall was in their game management. Leading 2-0 after half an hour, they conceded two in first-half injury time before conceding a penalty and suffering a red card after the break. An 86th minute equaliser was then cancelled out by a 96th minute winner from Bryan Mbuemo.
The match highlighted Ipswich’s clear and significant potential. The squad’s quality is obvious, as is McKenna’s expertise. But mistakes have cost them and the squad lacks a level of maturity and leadership needed to see tight games over the line.
There is cause to believe they can make a real good go of staying up.
Southampton (20th, 1pts, -13GD, 0W1D8L)
Southampton are used to doing things the hard way after earning promotion through the play-offs, and the 2024/25 Premier League season does has certainly been a challenge.
With a solitary point from nine matches played coming by way of a draw against Ipswich, manager Russell Martin has been tipped by many to be sacked sooner rather than later.
The definitive purchases of Southampton’s summer were Taylor Harwood-Bellis following his loan spell last season, Arsenal outcast Aaron Ramsdale, and Villareal winger Ben Brereton Diaz, who is yet to win a Premier League match after 20 appearances.
Martin has been adamant that he will stick to the possession-based style which won them promotion. But there has been little end product for all of that possession. Southampton average 54% possession per game so far this season, achieving more than 70% three times in the league already. Only Manchester City, Tottenham, and Liverpool have completed more passes than the Saints.
Despite that, Southampton rank 15th for touches in the opposition penalty area and second for touches in their own. They have scored the second-fewest goals (6), taken the third-fewest shots (94), and have generated just 10.5 xG.
At the opposite end of the pitch, only Wolves and Ipswich have conceded more goals than Southampton, who are one of just three teams yet to keep a clean sheet.
Unfortunately for Martin, the numbers do not make for good reading. It is an equation which has sunk many a manager in the past: lots of possession, little attacking output, and a porous defence. There are obvious comparisons to Burnley last season.
